Is the Queensland Property Market Still Growing in 2026?
Your buyers are still competing. Your listings are still moving in under four weeks. And the interstate inquiry line hasn’t gone quiet. But the data is more nuanced now than it was twelve months ago, and agents who read it only at the headline level are giving their clients an incomplete picture.
The Queensland property market is still growing in 2026 — that much is clear. What’s changed is the character of that growth: the explosive, catch-all surge of 2021 to 2023 has given way to something more differentiated, more interest rate-sensitive, and more dependent on which segment and which region you’re talking about. Understanding that distinction is what separates agents who advise well from those who simply quote last quarter’s median.
The Numbers: Where the Market Stands Right Now
The headline figures remain strong by any objective standard. Queensland leads the country for price growth, with dwelling values up 9.59% over the past year. The median house price in Queensland now sits at $908,772 — well below NSW levels but with faster growth.
In Brisbane specifically, the numbers are striking. According to PropTrack, Brisbane dwelling values increased by 122% between March 2020 and April 2026, well above the 56% growth recorded over the combined capital cities. Cotality’s Home Value Index shows Brisbane dwelling values rose 1.9% in November alone, lifting quarterly growth to 5.5% and annual growth to 12.8%, with the median now sitting just above $1.01 million.
Brisbane house prices are forecast to grow nearly 11% this year — double that of Sydney — following a 14.6% jump in Brisbane’s median house price through 2025, the year the Brisbane market leapfrogged Melbourne and the city’s median property price hit $1 million. That’s not a market that’s slowing. But it is a market beginning to consolidate after an exceptional run.
The unit market deserves particular attention in 2026. Brisbane unit prices are outpacing houses on a monthly and quarterly basis, rising 1.4% in April 2026 and 5.5% over the quarter. Annual growth of 22.6% means Brisbane unit prices have risen faster than any other major dwelling type in this market over the past year. The affordability argument is driving this: buyers priced out of detached housing are concentrating demand in the unit segment, compressing yields and accelerating capital growth in a product type that has historically underperformed.
The Four Structural Drivers That Keep the Market Moving
Population Growth That Hasn’t Slowed
The single most important force underpinning Queensland property values is population growth — and it remains exceptionally robust. In 2024–25, an extra 97,944 people called Queensland home, with around 57% of the growth coming from a higher-than-average population gain through net overseas migration of 55,743 people.
In 2024–25, Queensland recorded an increase of almost 98,000 people, the third-largest population gain nationally. The state’s annual population growth rate of 1.8% exceeded the national average of 1.5%.
Queensland is unique in Australia: it is the only state or territory to have recorded positive net interstate migration in every financial year since the early 1980s. Lifestyle preferences, climate, employment opportunities, and relative affordability — particularly compared with Sydney and Melbourne — continue to draw people north.
That migration stream shows no structural sign of reversing. While overseas migration drives most of the state’s growth, internal migration also makes a significant contribution, especially to regional Queensland. Queensland’s large net internal migration inflow continues to reshape its age and demographic profile. For agents, this translates directly to a sustained pool of new buyers and renters arriving in the market.
A Supply Deficit That Isn’t Close to Being Solved
Every long-run property analysis eventually comes back to supply. In Queensland, the supply picture is structurally grim — and that’s what continues to support prices even as affordability tightens.
Queensland is experiencing strong population growth driven by interstate and overseas migration, yet dwelling completions are failing to keep pace. Keeping up with future population growth would require at least 44,800 new dwellings annually, based on population growth of 111,900 over the twelve months to September 2024.
The apartment sector is where the undersupply is most acute. Under the South East Queensland Regional Plan 2023, Brisbane is required to deliver around 8,000 attached dwellings per year to 2031. Yet less than half of this target has been delivered each year since 2019. Between 2020 and 2024, inner Brisbane delivered around 1,400 apartments per year on average. While completions lifted to around 2,550 apartments in 2025 and are forecast to approach 3,000 in 2026, this still leaves an annual shortfall of 4,000–5,000 apartments against the targets.
The construction sector itself is under significant pressure. High-density construction costs rose 3.6% in the most recent period, driven primarily by labour constraints. Queensland is experiencing the sharpest trade availability pressures, largely due to competition from infrastructure and mining projects pulling workers out of residential construction. Queensland construction costs are up 44% over five years.
The situation in Southeast Queensland is considered critically worse than most markets, with active supply having dropped into what is considered as chronic or critically low territory. Australia’s housing crisis is set to deepen in the year ahead as the development sector continues to navigate high construction costs, severe shortages of skilled labour, limited supplies of development-ready land and rising development holding costs.
The 2032 Olympics Infrastructure Pipeline
The Brisbane 2032 Olympic Games is not just a sporting event — it is a decade-long infrastructure programme that is reshaping the city’s fundamentals in ways that have direct implications for property values.
The $7.1 billion funding agreement between federal and Queensland governments is driving infrastructure investment, including a $3.7 billion Victoria Park stadium, Brisbane Metro, Cross River Rail, and 17 venue upgrades. These projects improve liveability and connectivity across entire corridors, not just around the venues themselves.
The supply paradox here is critical: as the Olympics build ramps up from late 2026 through to mid-2031, construction capacity that might otherwise go into residential development will be absorbed into the Olympics pipeline. CBRE forecasts just 3,100 new inner-city dwellings will be built each year from 2026 to 2031, well below the demand implied by Brisbane’s population growth. This has led to vacancy rate forecasts remaining at or below 1.0% until at least 2031.
CBRE research examined what happened to residential prices in the four years following the Games in every host city since 1996. The average price growth in the four years post-Olympics was 42.5%, compared to 23.3% in the four years leading up to the event. Olympic host cities, on average, grew faster after the Games than before them. That’s the most underappreciated data point in any Brisbane investment conversation.
The Rental Market as a Leading Indicator
Rental market conditions tell you where the buy market is heading. In Queensland, the rental market tells a consistent story: demand is overwhelming supply, and there is no near-term resolution.
The state’s residential vacancy rate fell to 0.9% in the first three months of 2026, according to the REIQ. Its latest residential vacancy rate report found that the rate in 24 of 50 local government areas statewide had tightened compared to the last quarter of 2025.
The REIQ classifies a ‘healthy’ vacancy rate at 2.6–3.5%, but the latest report reveals a vacancy rate of 1% or less in 33 council areas. That’s not a temporary tightening. It’s a structural condition. There were virtually no rentals to be found in Goondiwindi, while very few rental options lasted long in Charters Towers, Cook, Banana, Tablelands, and Maranoa. These regional markets represent the state’s tightest vacancy rates, and sadly none are new to the list as incredibly tough conditions persist.
Rents have also climbed strongly, rising 8.33%, reflecting continued pressure in the rental market. Tenants who can’t find suitable rentals eventually become buyers — which means the rental shortage is also a deferred buyer pipeline.
Where Growth Is Strongest Across the State
Queensland’s market is not uniform, and treating it as one number is a mistake agents can’t afford to make with clients.
Brisbane continues to be the flagship. According to recent data from CoreLogic and Domain, Brisbane house prices have experienced moderate annual growth, while regional areas have shown pockets of stronger performance. Median house prices in Brisbane are now sitting around the mid- to high-eight-hundred-thousand-dollar range, with some suburbs exceeding one million dollars.
Brisbane’s strongest annual price gains in 2026 are concentrated in the city’s southern and south-western corridors, with outer-ring and fringe areas leading the pack. Beaudesert ranks first across Greater Brisbane with annual growth of 25.4% and a median value of $959,256. The outer-ring story is about relative affordability driving demand south and west as inner-Brisbane prices become structurally prohibitive for first-home buyers.
Regional Queensland is generating some of the most aggressive numbers in the country. Regional Queensland has experienced an average growth rate of 12.6% over the past twelve months since January 2025. House values rose 2.8% over the quarter and 9.7% year-on-year in regional Queensland, lifting the median price to $771,371. Over the past five years, house values have surged 76.9%.
Leading the state in growth was Western Downs (Darling Downs–Maranoa), up 5.3% for the quarter and 13.4% year-on-year, followed by Maranoa with 5.1% quarterly growth and the third-highest annual increase at 12.2%, just behind Charters Towers at 12.3%.
North Queensland deserves specific attention. Townsville’s median house price has rocketed by almost 30% to $695,000 over the past twelve months. Homes are in short supply in Townsville, and demand for housing has shown no signs of slowing. House prices are forecast to continue showing double-digit growth in 2026. Townsville’s burgeoning local economy and plans for future development in both defence and education sectors have made it a prominent destination in North Queensland.
What the Big Four Banks Are Saying — and Why the Range Matters
Australia’s Big Four banks publish annual dwelling price forecasts as part of their economic research, and views on Brisbane for 2026 differ quite sharply across the four institutions. Each bank takes its own approach to methodology and horizon, so the figures are best read as a range of informed opinions rather than a consensus.
CBA predicts Brisbane property prices to rise 12.0% over 2026. Westpac predicts Brisbane property prices to rise 7.0% over 2026. NAB’s published forecast is at the Queensland state level, predicting dwelling prices to rise 4.4% over the next twelve months across Queensland. ANZ predicts Brisbane property prices to rise 9.7% over 2026.
The spread across Brisbane house price forecasts runs from 4.4% (NAB, Queensland-wide) to 12.0% (CBA), a range of nearly 8 percentage points. CBA and ANZ sit at the optimistic end of Brisbane property market predictions, while Westpac’s mid-range view and NAB’s state-level figure imply a more measured pace of growth. That width in the range reflects genuine uncertainty about how higher interest rates and softening consumer sentiment will weigh on Queensland demand through the second half of the year.
That eight-point spread is not analytical sloppiness — it reflects the genuine tension between Queensland’s structural demand fundamentals and the affordability ceiling created by sustained rate pressure.
The Headwinds: What Could Slow the Market
The case for continued growth is strong, but it is not unchallenged. Agents who present only the bull case are doing their clients a disservice.
Interest rates are the most immediate constraint. At its March 2026 meeting, the RBA lifted the cash rate to 4.10%, up from 3.60% at the previous meeting. The decision reflected persistent inflationary pressures, a tight labour market, and the upside risk to energy prices. Financial markets are pricing in further upward pressure on the cash rate through 2026, and the general industry view is that rates have not yet peaked.
A cash rate of 4.10% adds meaningful pressure to borrowing capacity. For a buyer in Brisbane, where the median dwelling value now sits above $1,100,000, each upward move in the cash rate reduces the loan size a typical household can service, effectively pushing some buyers out of the market or down into lower price points.
Affordability is the market’s own brake. As of 30 March, Brisbane home values were 88% of the average across other capital cities (heavily distorted by Sydney), up from a 53-year average of 78%. CBA recently released data showing that Brisbane is the second most expensive capital city market in the nation behind Sydney, with affordability that is far worse than Melbourne, Adelaide, and Perth. The city’s extraordinary run has come at a cost to its relative value proposition.
From 2025 into 2026, the price trend continues upward, albeit at a slower and more sustainable pace. This pattern aligns with broader Australian housing market conditions, where price growth has normalised rather than reversed.
Regulatory risk is also on the radar. From February 2026, APRA will cap loans with a debt-to-income ratio of six or more at 20% of new lending. Cotality estimates just 5.5% of recent loans fall into this high-DTI category, meaning the immediate impact may be limited. However, it clearly signals regulators’ intent to restrain leverage late in the cycle.
Finally, there’s an honest note from one of the country’s most closely-watched property data analysts. Cotality’s Tim Lawless noted that low supply and population growth continue to support values, but added: “It’s clearly an unsustainable brand of growth we’re seeing across many Queensland markets. We are starting to see the first signs of that momentum leaving the marketplace, even though growth remains high.” Rising property values are flowing directly into Queensland’s rental market, which remains among the tightest in the country.
The Outlook: Growth Continues, But the Phase Has Changed
The overall shape of the data tells a clear story. Queensland house prices experienced a rapid expansion cycle, transitioned into consolidation, and are now moving through a period of steadier growth. For buyers and investors, this suggests a market that is no longer surging unpredictably but remains structurally supported by population growth, supply constraints, and long-term economic confidence.
ANZ Research forecasts Brisbane to grow 9.7% in 2026, one of the strongest performances of any capital city — but growth is expected to moderate significantly to 1.4% in 2027 as affordability constraints bite. That slowdown in 2027 is not a crisis — it’s a normal phase of the cycle after five years of exceptional gains. The structural case for Brisbane over the next decade remains very strong.
The longer-term population trajectory supports this view. Over the next four decades, Queensland’s population growth rate is projected to remain above the national average under the medium series (1.1% versus 0.8%), with the population reaching approximately 8.7 million by 2065. Every person in that population needs a roof, and Queensland is not building anywhere near enough of them.
Queensland saw strong housing price growth of 17% through the year to March 2026. This trend partly reflects strong population growth combined with low levels of new supply in recent years.
What This Means for Queensland Agents
The question your clients are really asking isn’t “is the market growing?” It’s “should I act now, or wait?” The data gives you a clear and defensible answer: the structural drivers are intact, but the pace has shifted, and the risk profile has changed slightly at the top end.
For listing agents, conditions still strongly favour vendors. Homes are selling quickly, with a median 22 days on market, making Queensland one of the fastest-moving markets nationally. From a seller’s perspective, current conditions have created a powerful advantage. Many properties are receiving strong interest at or above guide prices, and vendors are seeing quick turnaround times on quality listings. However, pricing discipline still matters — overquoting in a rate-sensitive environment stalls campaigns and erodes vendor confidence.
For buyer’s agents and buyers’ representatives, the unit market deserves a renewed conversation with clients. Brisbane’s unit market surged 16.9% over 2025, significantly outpacing houses at 14.0%. This trend reflects the growing demand for affordable housing and the limited supply of new apartments in key inner-city and middle-ring suburbs. Buyers priced out of detached housing are finding real value and genuine yield in well-located units and townhouses — and this is where competition is increasingly concentrating.
For property managers, the vacancy data from the REIQ is telling you something important. Cost-of-living pressures and persistent low vacancy rates are reshaping how renting is viewed, with more tenants forming co-tenancies — joining forces to share costs and expand their options. Feedback from the sector is also highlighting a growing number of disputes through QCAT, with a strong call for a more balanced legislative framework that supports both tenants and property owners. Property managers need to stay close to REIQ guidance on compliance, and principals should be reviewing their rent roll procedures accordingly.
For investors — particularly those advising interstate or international buyers — Queensland’s yield and growth combination still compares favourably with other Australian markets. The region’s gross rental yield sits at 4.3%, outperforming the national average of 3.7%. The Australian Property Investor Magazine Q3 2025 Sentiment Report still ranks Queensland as the most attractive state for investment over the next twelve months.
The Queensland property market in 2026 is growing, not stalling. What it isn’t doing is growing indiscriminately. That means the agents adding the most value right now are those who can read the market at a granular level — who know that Western Downs is outperforming Brisbane’s inner ring, that units are outperforming houses, and that the 2032 infrastructure pipeline is a structural argument, not just a marketing slogan.